Hablemos de economía, hablemos de finanzas

TPP11

Implications for Canada of the non-participation of the U.S. in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

Fecha: 3 enero 2020 Temas: , , , , ,

Trans-Pacific Economic Cooperation Agreement (TPP12)

The Trans-Pacific Economic Cooperation Agreement (TPP12), is a commercial-free trade pact, signed in February 2016 by 12 countries in Asia, America, and Oceania countries that border the Pacific. Since its integration and during its operation, these countries observed various economic benefits derived from the deal (SICE, 2019).

In 2017, the U.S. withdrawal from TPP12 started speculations about implications and economic impacts on the remaining 11 countries. Although the TPP was expected to end, the remaining countries began the process of implementing the treaty without the U.S. In December 2018, the 11 members started the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP, also known as TPP11). The TPP11 holds the same rules and market access outcomes and most of the provisions of the TPP (CAFTA, 2019). Until now, seven of the eleven countries have ratified the agreement: Australia, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Singapore, and Vietnam.

Implications for Canada of the non-participation of the U.S.

Some studies predicted that continuing with the TPP11 will produce positive economic results for the 11 remaining countries (Kawasaki, 2017; Dade et al., 2017; Petri and Plummer, 2016; Global Affairs Canada (2018)). Particularly, Dade et al. (2017) they use a special version of the standard GTAP Computable General Equilibrium Model (Attachment A). With this, they use integrated accounts to be able to analyze robustly a part of the economy. Researchers consider that sources of the impacts are tariff reduction supplemented by services liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment. They derivate the next results:

The model shows the possible economic benefit taking into consideration a set of rules for the supply and production of goods and services. In general, the 11 countries would generate a 2.43% increase in intra-regional exports, it is a lesser increase than the expected with the participation of …

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Yo soy Karla Estefanía Romero, economista especializada en las áreas de finanzas públicas, macroeconomía y análisis de datos con software estadístico.


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